Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.341359 0.386766 0.436039 0.493493 0.558671 0.630343 0.715178
2025-10-12 0.275194 0.335441 0.405765 0.493977 0.601784 0.729407 0.892204
2025-10-19 0.229285 0.298453 0.384666 0.500174 0.651174 0.842282 1.103221
2025-10-26 0.196791 0.272168 0.371992 0.514158 0.711999 0.978449 1.366106
2025-11-02 0.161284 0.235881 0.340353 0.497785 0.729936 1.061173 1.572425
2025-11-09 0.131290 0.202215 0.306830 0.472975 0.731552 1.120891 1.755969
2025-11-16 0.111235 0.179829 0.286040 0.463236 0.753358 1.212904 2.002641
2025-11-23 0.094694 0.160174 0.266270 0.451638 0.769929 1.298680 2.253110
2025-11-30 0.085189 0.150416 0.260753 0.462185 0.824091 1.453234 2.643493
2025-12-07 0.072894 0.133941 0.241424 0.445833 0.828936 1.523774 2.897368
2025-12-14 0.063931 0.121999 0.228197 0.438169 0.847856 1.621570 3.216670
2025-12-21 0.056360 0.111474 0.215963 0.430327 0.864887 1.717763 3.547872
2025-12-28 0.052097 0.106910 0.214755 0.444589 0.929276 1.919135 4.133096
2026-01-04 0.046778 0.099434 0.206771 0.444013 0.963618 2.066071 4.632116
2026-01-11 0.042650 0.093803 0.201720 0.448834 1.010343 2.246782 5.238708
2026-01-18 0.039609 0.090046 0.200063 0.460811 1.074913 2.477031 6.001110
2026-01-25 0.034869 0.081772 0.187340 0.445782 1.075349 2.562721 6.437538
2026-02-01 0.030260 0.073102 0.172457 0.423345 1.054581 2.595512 6.750406
2026-02-08 0.027120 0.067447 0.163756 0.414460 1.065581 2.707045 7.285599
2026-02-15 0.024274 0.062083 0.154970 0.403973 1.070825 2.805114 7.804080
2026-02-22 0.022811 0.059992 0.153945 0.413291 1.129451 3.050850 8.774207
2026-03-01 0.020320 0.054854 0.144446 0.398631 1.120980 3.116383 9.246551
2026-03-08 0.018470 0.051150 0.138156 0.391745 1.133035 3.240447 9.914778